Predictability — where it appears
Named by 7 essays across 4 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.
A millionth is enough
Two trajectories a millionth apart separate by a factor of e every three-quarters of a second, so a millionfold improvement in the measurement buys about ten seconds of extra prediction. That exchange rate, and not the size of the error, is what limits forecasting.
The randomness that is not in the equations
Turbulence is described in the language of statistics — means, variances, spectra, probability distributions — and none of that language appears in the equations it is a description of. The Navier–Stokes equations have no random term anywhere in them. What is random is the observer's ignorance of the initial data, and the flow's habit of amplifying it.
An hour for every tenfold
Turbulence is deterministic and unpredictable, and the exchange rate between those two is exact: measuring the initial state ten times better buys the same extra forecast time every time, for ever. A constant, and it belongs to the flow rather than to the instrument.
Steady, three-dimensional, and mixing anyway
A steady flow that solves the Euler equations exactly, with its vorticity equal to its velocity to six parts in ten thousand million — and one of its streamlines wanders through a sixth of the box while another, started nearby, lies on a curve for ever.
Three is the most that can be predicted
Point vortices are the simplest dynamical system fluid mechanics has — no cores, no viscosity, no approximations, four exactly conserved quantities. Three of them are integrable and cannot be chaotic. Add a fourth and the same equations, conserving the same quantities to fourteen digits, stop being predictable at all.
A scalar is a record of where its fluid was
A conserved scalar has no value of its own. Its value at a point is whatever it was at the place that point's fluid started from, which makes a dye field a photograph of the past — and makes the map from now to then the only thing in the flow that carries the past at all.
Reversible, and unusable
Ideal flow has no arrow of time in it. Run a stirring backwards and the dye comes back — here to 1.4 parts in a thousand million. Nudge the state by a hundred-millionth first and the same reversal returns a blob almost five hundred times further from home than the nudge was large.
Named alongside it
The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.
MixingThe Lyapunov exponentMeasurementDynamical systemModel validityAdvectionChaosDeterminismEnsembleFlow mapInitial conditionMemory kernel