Concept

Predictability — where it appears

How far ahead a flow's state can be forecast, given imperfect knowledge of its present. The horizon grows only as the logarithm of the accuracy of the initial data, so better instruments buy very little of it.

Named by 7 essays across 4 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

A millionth, doubling every three-quarters of a second. The separation of two trajectories started a millionth apart, on log axes against time. It grows as a straight line until it saturates at the size of the attractor, and the slope of that line is the largest Lyapunov exponent — measured here on the system by renormalising a nearby pair, not quoted. Sensitive dependence is what the straightness of the line means.

A millionth is enough

Two trajectories a millionth apart separate by a factor of e every three-quarters of a second, so a millionfold improvement in the measurement buys about ten seconds of extra prediction. That exchange rate, and not the size of the error, is what limits forecasting.

turbulence · Convection
A millionth, doubling every three-quarters of a second. The separation of two trajectories started a millionth apart, on log axes against time. It grows as a straight line until it saturates at the size of the attractor, and the slope of that line is the largest Lyapunov exponent — measured here on the system by renormalising a nearby pair, not quoted. Sensitive dependence is what the straightness of the line means.

The randomness that is not in the equations

Turbulence is described in the language of statistics — means, variances, spectra, probability distributions — and none of that language appears in the equations it is a description of. The Navier–Stokes equations have no random term anywhere in them. What is random is the observer's ignorance of the initial data, and the flow's habit of amplifying it.

misconceptions · Randomness
An hour for every tenfold, for ever. How long a forecast lasts, against how well the initial state is known. The relation is T = ln(tolerance/error)/lambda — exactly logarithmic — so improving the measurement by a factor of ten buys exactly the same extra time every time: ln(10)/lambda, which for this flow is 24.5 time units. It does not get harder and it does not get easier.

An hour for every tenfold

Turbulence is deterministic and unpredictable, and the exchange rate between those two is exact: measuring the initial state ten times better buys the same extra forecast time every time, for ever. A constant, and it belongs to the flow rather than to the instrument.

misconceptions · Randomness
One streamline, sectioned, in two steady flows. Every time a single streamline crosses the plane z ≡ 0 going upwards, a point is plotted. On the left the flow is integrable and the points lie on a curve, however long the trajectory is run. On the right one coefficient of the same exact solution has been changed and the same single streamline scatters over a sixth of the plane. Both flows are steady, both are incompressible to machine precision, and both are exact solutions of the Euler equations.

Steady, three-dimensional, and mixing anyway

A steady flow that solves the Euler equations exactly, with its vorticity equal to its velocity to six parts in ten thousand million — and one of its streamlines wanders through a sixth of the box while another, started nearby, lies on a curve for ever.

kinematics · Advection
Four vortices, and the end of prediction. The same three vortices as before with a fourth, weaker one added near the middle. Three point vortices have three independent invariants for three degrees of freedom and cannot be chaotic; four have the same three invariants and one more degree of freedom, and generically are. The energy and the impulses are conserved here to fourteen digits over the whole run, which is what makes the tangle a property of the system rather than of the arithmetic.

Three is the most that can be predicted

Point vortices are the simplest dynamical system fluid mechanics has — no cores, no viscosity, no approximations, four exactly conserved quantities. Three of them are integrable and cannot be chaotic. Add a fourth and the same equations, conserving the same quantities to fourteen digits, stop being predictable at all.

inviscid · Vortex dynamics
Five points, and where each one's fluid came from. Back-trajectories through six units of time in an unsteady double gyre. Each curve ends at the place the fluid now at the marked point started; nothing about that place can be read off the velocity at the marker.

A scalar is a record of where its fluid was

A conserved scalar has no value of its own. Its value at a point is whatever it was at the place that point's fluid started from, which makes a dye field a photograph of the past — and makes the map from now to then the only thing in the flow that carries the past at all.

kinematics · Advection
There and back again. A blob of a hundred and twenty tracer particles at the start, after four time units of stirring, and after the same four run backwards. The third set is drawn over the first and the worst particle is 1.4·10⁻⁹ from where it began.

Reversible, and unusable

Ideal flow has no arrow of time in it. Run a stirring backwards and the dye comes back — here to 1.4 parts in a thousand million. Nudge the state by a hundred-millionth first and the same reversal returns a blob almost five hundred times further from home than the nudge was large.

inviscid · Vortex dynamics

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

MixingThe Lyapunov exponentMeasurementDynamical systemModel validityAdvectionChaosDeterminismEnsembleFlow mapInitial conditionMemory kernel

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